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Manifold

プレイマネー(実際の金銭を賭けない)の予測市場。ニッチな問いを広くカバー。

プレイマネーのため出来高は mana 単位。実マネー市場との精度比較の対照群として収録。

600 市場を収録(当サイト掲載分・取得時点)。カテゴリ内訳: 未分類 212 テック・AI 88 地政学 86 政治 79 クリプト 44 スポーツ 39 経済 38 カルチャー 11 科学 3

注目の市場(出来高上位)

市場「Yes」確率出来高決着予定
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check? 98%$5.3M2026-05-03
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? 9%$2.9M2026-12-31
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025? 1%$1.9M2026-01-02
Starmer out before July? 100%$1.6M2026-06-22
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025? 2%$1.6M2025-12-09
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity] 3%$1.5M2026-08-31
US government shutdown by January 31st 2026? 99%$1.4M2026-01-31
Will TSLA reach >$690 before 8pm EST 10/10 2025 1%$1.4M2025-10-10
TrumpMegaMillions (M10k Prize) DAY 9: We The People 26%$1.1M2025-11-20
Charlie Kirk shooter in custody by Sep 12 (ET)? 1%$1.1M2025-09-12
Will Marcus Hutter win his $10,000 bet that David Budden will not solve the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem? 99%$934K2026-01-06
Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton? 1%$926K2027-01-01
Will the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 Super Bowl LX 1%$875K2026-02-09
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? 10%$868K2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025? 1%$866K2025-12-31
Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? 0%$857K2026-01-02
can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028 48%$818K2027-12-31
Will Robinhood re-add sports markets from Kalshi in 2025? 97%$818K2025-03-17
Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025? 92%$772K2025-12-31
Claude Sonnet 5 released this week? 1%$767K2026-02-08
Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win? 100%$714K2025-02-10
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030? 90%$647K2030-03-18
Will Elon musk form a new political party 1%$627K2026-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket] 0%$615K2026-07-07
TrumpMegaMillions (M10k Prize) DAY 8: Limitless 50%$581K2025-11-19

数値は Manifold の公開APIに基づく参考値であり、取得時点のものです。市場が織り込む確率であって、当編集部の予測でも保証でもありません。